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Avoiding a collision.....
APC Intends a Landslide Victory at First Round

Abdul Hassan Fackie,

Freetown, Sierra Leone.

As the clock ticks to March 7th, 2018 for Sierra Leoneans to have their Presidential, Parliamentarian and Local Council Elections, the most topical question that most people are now asking is whether the ruling All Peoples Congress' (APC) Presidential candidate, Dr. Samura Matthew Wilson Kamara (pictured) will win the Presidency with fifty percent of the votes in the first round.

This question is being asked against the backdrop that the APC has the advantage of incumbency and has all the wherewithal to win the Presidency on first ballot and also win majority of the Parliamentary and Local Council seats.

However, from the available registered number of voters and their regional and district spread, it will appear very difficult for any of two biggest parties, the APC and the Sierra Leone Peoples Party (SLPP) to win the Presidential election on first ballot.

For ease of reference we have about three million one hundred and seventy eight thousand six hundred and sixty three (3,178,663) registered voters. To have fifty five percent of the votes a party will have to get one million seven hundred and forty eight thousand two hundred and sixty four (1,748,264) votes.

Without any hesitation, based on how we normally vote on regional and district basis, no Presidential candidate will take these votes on the first round, maybe APC will.

This therefore presupposes that with all the good will and massive resources at its disposal, the APC will find it very difficult, if not impossible, to pull these votes on the first ballot. 

While we have to accept that all the variables indicate that APC will lead the elections in all categories, getting fifty five percent for the Presidency will not be achieved in the first round.

The scenario therefore that one can reasonably create is that the APC will definitely take the lion's share of the votes in the first round with perhaps thirty five to forty to even forty five percent. 

If this prediction comes to pass, the APC will then have to go in a run off with the party that will come second, which most Sierra Leoneans say will be the SLPP.

If this happens, both parties will then have to trade first and foremost with the  three other large parties, namely, the National Grand Coalition (NGC), the Coalition for Change (C4C) and the Citizens Democratic Party (CDP), and with the remaining smaller parties of the seventeen parties that the country has.

If this happens, then, depending on how alliances will be formed, it will be very difficult to predict who will win the Presidential election.

With the present state of suspicion and the virtual hate that all the major five parties mentioned have for the APC, a run off will be very difficult for the APC to win, as they will prefer to give their support to the SLPP.